The following focuses on the process of finding horse racing winners in the UK, although the general principles apply equally worldwide.
Form
A horse’s form is a record of its recent racing performances. However, 2-year-old races and maiden races, along with “novice” races over jumps, generally involve unraced horses or those with limited racing experience. Their general level of ability and preferences for underfoot conditions and effective distance(s) cannot be determined effectively and such races are best avoided for betting purposes. The most important aspect of horse racing form is just how current it is. Horses, like human athletes, cannot be maintained at 100% fitness for an entire racing season. Most are brought slowly to their peak, where they remain for, perhaps, a few weeks, before being “let down” again by their trainers. This means that even winning form that is more than a few weeks old must be treated as suspect, since there is no guarantee that a horse remains fit and ready to do itself justice on the racecourse unless they exert extreme care to prevent illnesses by applying the Best Fly Spray For Horses so that the horse can perform at its best. Any horse that has not run in the last 42 days should be eliminated from any shortlist of potential winners.
First 3 in the Market
It has been proven over many years that in all horse races run in the United Kingdom, some 65% of winners come from the first three in the betting market. A logical approach is to concentrate any betting activity on these horses. Some argue that this approach immediately ignores the remaining 35% of winners. However, as the average punter is unlikely to have the time or inclination to examine the previous form of every runner in a race, it is a compromise between returns and the work required to produce those returns. This does not mean that any punter can expect a “strike rate” of 65% and the overall statistics are merely a pointer to where efforts are best concentrated. However, by eliminating as much uncertainty as possible from betting, the odds shift in the punter’s favour.
Horsemanship
The inherent ability, experience and tactical understanding of a jockey can make a significant difference in horse racing. There are many very proficient amateur and apprentice jockeys, but without total certainty that a rider can produce the best from a horse, betting in races restricted to such jockeys can be a lottery. Novice punters are wise to avoid these races completely. Whilst professional jockeys are fallible, they are unlikely to be beaten for strength in riding a finish or by failing to adequately restrain a hard-pulling mount.
Luck in Running
Luck in running is, of course, a requirement for successful betting on horse racing of any kind. In National Hunt racing, for example a horse can, of course, fall of its own volition, but also be brought down, or at least brought to a standstill, by another runner. This is an “occupational hazard” of betting on horses and while it is possible to eliminate some risk, there is always the possibility of something unusual occurring, as even the best jockey`s feet may slip from the safety irons at a crucial moment in a race.
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